More seasonable temperatures arriving in the Northeast and Midwest, along with what could be a tropical depression or storm due in the eastern Gulf Friday, provided all the ammunition that bulls needed to carry cash prices higher across the board Wednesday. Gains ranged from about a nickel to 20 cents and were distributed fairly evenly on a geographic basis.

After an unusually cool spring and mostly mild summer, the Northeast is finally about to experience something like normal August weather. Highs around 90 degrees or more are expected from Boston to Washington, according to The Weather Channel, which noted that it would be New York City’s first reading of 90 since July 5 — and Pittsburgh’s first since September 2002! Such temperature heights won’t be quite as prevalent in the Midwest, but that region also is feeling warmer than it has most of the summer.

The National Hurricane Center reported that an Air Force plane was unable to find any closed circulation in the low-pressure area over the central Bahamas Wednesday, but it did measure winds near tropical storm force north and northeast of the area of lowest pressure. Satellite images suggested that the system was gradually getting better organized and could become a tropical cyclone at any time, NHC said. The system, moving rapidly at nearly 20 mph, was expected to reach southern Florida and the Florida Keys sometime Thursday and possibly be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as early as that night.

“Well, it looks like prices are solidly back above $5 for at least a few days,” observed a Gulf Coast marketer. Why? “Just because they can,” he said, adding a bit sarcastically, “Just what we need; another Gulf storm to throw a little excitement into the market.”

Although well removed from the tropical Atlantic scene, a western trader said super-hot weather is still a potent factor in his region. Overall power generation load in the West has been rising recently as high temperatures get nearer the California coast, he said.

It’s been pretty warm of late in the Northeast, a utility buyer commented, “and it looks like we can expect some true summer temperatures in the next couple of days.” Otherwise his market is very quiet, “surprisingly so,” he said.

A Midcontinent marketer is taking a somewhat bearish stance. “Prices came back down after being way up today [Wednesday], and I do believe most prices will be down 10-20 cents [Thursday],” he said.

But looking ahead to the storage report, an East Coast utility buyer said an injection of 100 Bcf or more would be bearish to his company, while 90 Bcf or less would seem bullish. Since most prior guesses were centered around 70 Bcf, he’s looking for further price firmness. He went on to note that “all the other utilities we talk to say they’re sticking with a steady pace of storage injections.”

Florida Gas Transmission warned market-area customers of a potential Overage Alert Day notice Thursday, but at least one source discounted OAD chances by noting that the approaching low-pressure system would bring cooling rains to much of Florida.

It appeared that for a change the National Weather Service’s forecast for next week would give comfort to bullish traders. As of Tuesday afternoon NWS was predicting that during the Aug. 18-22 period, below normal temperatures would be felt only in the lower Southeast states from Louisiana through Georgia and Florida. Otherwise, except for Washington state, the agency looked for above normal temperatures north and west of a line from West Texas through the Midcontinent and curving east into Maryland.

However, there was a radical change Wednesday in the agency’s outlook for Aug. 19-23. The below normal forecast in the South had shrunk to Louisiana, the eastern two-thirds of Texas and the southern sections of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Mississippi, and was expanded to include the Northeast and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the region expected to see above normal thermometer readings got chopped approximately in half and encompassed states from the Upper Plains through the Rockies, desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest to California (Washington still was excluded).

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