The market was close to flat in most cases Thursday as only a few points saw more than single-digit change either up or down. Overall it was a bit weaker as softness tended to overshadow gains more than on Wednesday. Cooler forecasts for Friday in the Northeast and much of the South were counterbalanced by warming trends in the Midcontinent/Midwest and Rockies, with Wednesday’s 12.8-cent loss by April futures tipping the market scales more to the bearish side.

A moderate majority of points recorded declines ranging from 2-3 cents to C20 cents (NOVA Inventory Transfer). The rest of the market was flat to about 30 cents higher.

After having negative prior-day screen guidance in recent days, Friday’s cash market will have substantial support from a spike of 49 cents by April futures Thursday (see related story). Although the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report of a 30 Bcf storage pull during the week ending March 13 was only slightly above consensus expectations in the mid to upper 20s Bcf, Nymex traders with short positions took advantage of a short-covering opportunity, according to one source. One of the more distinctive features of the EIA report was a net injection of 8 Bcf in the Producing region, which had been signaled earlier to some extent by Southern Natural Gas (see Daily GPI, March 18).

CIG is starting to feel the pressure from a combination of low weather-based demand and unseasonably high storage inventory levels, saying it will implement a Strained Operating Condition Friday (see Transportation Notes). In a perhaps related note, ANR said it was limiting receipts at its CIG-Beaver and Rockies Express interconnects due to high line pressures in the Southwest Area.

Northeast citygates saw little change from Wednesday despite forecasts of Friday lows returning to around freezing or less. Temperatures in the South will be cooler, but that represents mostly a diminution of potential cooling load and little perceptible pickup in heating demand.

The Midwest can expect a rebound from a brief blast of cold, but regional lows will still be chilly in the 30s and low 40s. The West will experience mostly seasonal temperatures, with a return to the balmy 70s due in Denver and Calgary expected to be no colder than freezing after recording a low of 10 as recently as Wednesday.

Even with Friday’s chilly forecast, a Northeast marketer said his region is “starting to see signs” of spring. Conditions should be a little milder during the weekend, he said. He thought Nymex reacted pretty dramatically to a storage withdrawal report that didn’t exceed expectations by much, saying he had to suspect that some futures traders saw a short-covering opportunity.

Weekend weather fundamentals will be weaker, the marketer said, but he expects Thursday’s futures spike to cause a near-repeat of cash market activity: mixed price movement with most points little changed from flat.

A utility buyer in the Southwest said his company’s gas loads are inching up slightly with highs approaching 90 recently, but the increases are small and overall demand remains light. Even that will disappear soon as his area is forecast to have a cooling trend back toward 70 or so during the weekend, he added.

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