Prices shot higher by double-digit amounts nearly across the board Thursday as a palpable threat to Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production grew more intense, cash numbers had substantial support from the previous day’s 14.5-cent futures rise, and some regions such as the Midwest were heating up, although their contribution to cooling load was likely to be brief.

Only a Dracut drop of nearly a dime was left out of overall gains ranging from a little more than C5 cents to nearly a quarter. A low-end quote of $2.40 for volatile Tennessee Zone 4 was by far the cheapest market price. Gains were fairly evenly distributed among geographic regions.

Despite a nominally bullish report of a 55 Bcf addition to storage in the week ending Aug. 26, when consensus expectations had been mostly in the low 60s Bcf, Nymex traders saw fit to discount both the Energy Information Administration data and the likely tropical storm entering the offshore production area in sending the October futures contract 0.4 cent cent lower (see related story).

A broad area of low pressure a couple of hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast at midday Thursday had an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Lee within the succeeding 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

Tropical Storm Katia briefly achieved hurricane status before being downgraded to a tropical storm again, but it was expected to restrengthen while continuing to churn toward the west-northwest in open Atlantic waters about 930 miles west of the northern Leeward Islands. An expected turn to the north was likely to keep it well out to sea. Similarly, a low-pressure system about 350 miles north of Bermuda had a 50% chance of tropical storm development, NHC said, but its northeastward movement would take it away from the East Coast.

In a report on GOM evacuations due to the Invest 93L area of tropical disturbance, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEM) said 127 MMcf/d of shut-ins, or 2.4% of normal Gulf output, had been reported to it by 11:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. Personnel had been evacuated from nine production platforms, but none of the mobile drilling rigs, BOEM said (see related story). It added that 79,989 b/d of GOM oil production, or about 5.7%, had been suspended.

The shut-in volume obviously was growing as following the BOEM report Transco said about 200 MMcf/d scheduled to flow into its system was offline. However, based on the projected storm track and intensity, Transco did not anticipate any supply allocations as a result of storm-related supply interruptions.

WeatherBell Analytics chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi said what he expects to become Tropical Storm Lee may be the slowest-moving storm in the northern GOM since Hurricane Juan in 1985, a storm that took five days to move across the Gulf’s open waters. “Parts of the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore oil and gas producing areas could experience gales for four or five days as Lee will be very slow to move before finally making up its mind to move out of the area,” Bastardi said. “The endgame is still unclear, but what is obvious is the northwest Gulf is in for a siege from a tropical cyclone that will impact the energy industry for at least several days, even though Lee may not be as intense as some of the other storms this year.”

Although highs ahead of a front would reach the 90s to the mid 100s Friday from Minnesota through the Great Lakes and southwest to Kansas, The Weather Channel said, a fall chill will replace them quickly during the weekend. The Northeast’s price gains ignored generally mild temperature forecasts, while much of the Gulf Coast area will soon be cooling down as well from the rains anticipated from the low-pressure area heading toward Louisiana. The area from Louisiana, Arkansas and western Tennessee through the desert Southwest can expect hot peaks from the upper 90s through the low 110s to continue a bit longer, but the Rockies is due for a dramatic cooldown, with Denver forecast to go from a high around 97 Thursday to the mid 80s Friday, according to Weather Underground.

Is it fall already? Northern Natural Gas illustrated how short-lived the current warm-up in the Midwest will be, saying a system-weighted average temperature of 82 Thursday was projected to plummet to 69, 66 and 61 on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Pipeline constraints were minimal heading into the weekend.

Northwest was probably typical among pipelines in asking shippers to avoid “excessive banking” on its system during the Labor Day weekend, citing a declining amount of available capacity in its balancing accounts at the Jackson Prairie and Clay Basin storage facilities.

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