While storm forecasters across the country on Wednesday were talking up the potential development of what would be Tropical Storm Jerry making a Gulf of Mexico appearance on Thursday, natural gas futures traders weren’t battling for the buy button just yet. As of 2 p.m. EDT, the October contract was trading at the day’s low of $6.200, down 36.8 cents from Tuesday.

A low-pressure system in the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Florida was being monitored closely on Wednesday as forecasters projected it would move across Florida and into the storm-building warmth of Gulf of Mexico waters sometime on Thursday, potentially putting the Gulf’s oil and natural gas producing infrastructure in danger.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reported that the system will intensify as it moves west through the Gulf, likely becoming a tropical system before making landfall along the Gulf Coast by the weekend. Adding that there is the potential for the storm to impact New Orleans, the forecasting firm noted that on this date in 1947, the eye of a hurricane passed directly over the city. Fifty-one people were killed and the damage total was set at $100 million (1947 dollars).

“Potential tropical trouble could ruin the weekend along the Gulf Coast,” said Kristina Baker, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com. “After bringing more heavy thunderstorms and rough surf to the Southeast coast Wednesday…an area of low pressure will move from Florida into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday. Since strong wind shear will not be present, the low will have an opportunity to develop tropically as it treks over the very warm water. Details of the system’s exact track will become clearer in the near future, but residents of the northern and western Gulf coasts are being put on alert.”

The storm had garnered the attention of some Gulf producers as well as the Minerals Management Service (MMS). A number of oil and gas producers were removing nonessential personnel, including Shell, BP, Total and Transocean. More were expected to follow (see Daily GPI, Sept. 19).

According to the MMS on Wednesday, personnel has been evacuated from 1 production platform, equivalent to 0.1% of the 834 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. One rig had also been evacuated, which is equivalent to 1.1% of the 89 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. However, No shut ins were reported as of yet.

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