Although steep production declines from mature domestic gas fields have taken much of the blame for $10/MMBtu gas prices in two of the last three winters and the current 12-month futures strip of $5.66, there’s actually a larger natural gas resource in the United States now than there was two years ago, according to a new assessment by the Potential Gas Committee. The committee is made up of 140 members from the gas industry, government agencies and academic institutions.

In its latest biennial report, the committee found that the total U.S. natural gas resource base, including proved reserves, is 1,311 Tcf, which is about a 65-year supply at the current production rate. Excluding proved reserves, the natural gas resource is 1,127 Tcf, with 958 Tcf in traditional reservoirs and 169 Tcf in coalbed reservoirs.

The assessment shows that the traditional resource grew 2.4% compared to levels in 2000 and the coalbed gas resource increased 8.8%. These increases have been assessed even though 38 Tcf of domestic natural gas has been produced in the two-year period between the last two Potential Gas Committee reports.

“The 2002 assessment reaffirms the committee’s evaluation of an abundant U.S. natural gas resource potential,” said John B. Curtis, director of the Potential Gas Agency at the Colorado School of Mines, which provides guidance and technical assistance to the committee.

Curtis noted that these estimates do not assume any time schedule for the discovery and production of future gas supply. “Estimates of the Potential Gas Committee are baseline estimates in that they attempt to provide a reasonable appraisal of the total natural gas resource potential of the United States.”

The committee estimates that there are 210.5 Tcf of probable gas resources from traditional production areas in the United States, an additional 325 Tcf of possible gas resources (new fields) and another 422 Tcf of speculative resources from traditional reservoir types in frontier areas. From coalbed methane reservoirs, the committee estimates that there are 17.1 Tcf of probable resources, 56.7 Tcf of possible resources and 95 Tcf of speculative resources from frontier areas. When combined with the Energy Information Administration’s estimate of 183.5 Tcf of proved reserves, the total resource amounts to 1,310.7 Tcf.

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