PJM Interconnection recently said that it expects its peak load this summer will come in at 52,977 MW, with a reserve margin of 17.7%. Overall, PJM said that its forecasted 2001 summer situation will be similar to the summer of 2000.
In a presentation before the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission, PJM noted that the peak load projection includes 1,619 MW of interruptible load and load management. Also, PJM said all nuclear units (12,987 MW) are expected to be available during the summer peak period. PJM is responsible for the operation and control of the bulk electric power system throughout major portions of five Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia.
With respect to reserve level sensitivity, PJM noted that a 1,000 MW unit outage will decrease reserves by around 11% and installed capacity by 1.7%. In addition, approximately 9% of PJM generation has historically been unavailable at the time of the summer peak. PJM pointed out that maintenance schedules are coordinated to minimize peak period impacts.
PJM also detailed its outlook for bulk power purchases and sales during the summer months. The grid operator said that firm imports are expected to be 450 MW, noting that non-firm imports are determined by market conditions. As for the projected amount of bulk power sales, PJM said it has 2,975 MW of firm transmission service in place for energy sales out of PJM through the 2001 summer peak period. At this time, PJM continued, none of these transactions are capacity-backed through the peak period and therefore can be curtailed in the event of a PJM capacity emergency.
PJM also addressed the question of how much assistance it anticipates needing from neighboring systems. PJM said that all of the NERC regional security coordinators and ISOs in the Northeast will utilize available resources and procedures to assist other regions in meeting peak load conditions or responding to emergencies. The exact extent of support available from other regions depends on the nature of the emergency and on conditions within the area providing support. PJM also disclosed that its capacity is expected to increase by an additional 3,115 MW from April 11 through June 1. This additional capacity uses all fuel types, including natural gas.
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