Natural gas is expected to overtake coal and become the second-largest fuel in the energy mix by 2045, but the long-term demand outlook is tempered somewhat by the rise in renewable energy and efficiencies, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Natural gas demand is projected to increase from 64.2 million boe/d in 2020 to 85.7 million boe/d in 2045, the Saudi-led cartel said in its 15th Annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) released Tuesday. Almost 95% of this growth is to come from developing countries, mostly Asia and the Middle East, and is driven by the power generation and industrial sectors.

OPEC researchers noted that natural gas was “relatively well-shielded” from the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 for a number of reasons. Gas...