Energy shortages and price spikes suggest the world needs more oil to meet global needs in the near term. Just how much more – and how quickly – remains a moving target.

opec

With Lower 48 producers hesitant to boost output in the pandemic’s wake, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, aka OPEC-plus, are in the driver’s seat. They could either ramp up output to balance the market this year or continue a measured approach to keep upward pressure on prices to compensate for coronavirus-induced losses last year. The cartel’s leader, Saudi Arabia, saw its oil export revenue in 2020 nearly cut in half from the previous year, according to OPEC data.

It creates a balancing act between profits now and possible economic disruption if prices...