The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, aka OPEC-plus, agreed on Thursday to maintain their monthly crude production increases at 400,000 b/d, extending a previously reached deal to gradually return output to pre-pandemic levels.

Delegates have said that, at the 400,000 b/d pace established in August, production should slowly but steadily balance supply/demand as soon as early 2022. Increasing output even more to quicken the post-pandemic alignment, however, would pose elevated risk, given the possibility for new coronavirus outbreaks this winter and corresponding demand interruptions.

For example, Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson said, “when China reacted to a Covid-19 case resurgence in the summer of 2021, domestic aviation fuel demand fell...