While it is pursuing a reduced carbon power generation portfolio that includes a bold nuclear power plant play, Princeton, NJ-based NRG Energy, Inc.’s aggressive 10,000 MW, $15.9 billion long-term development plan is weighted toward an expectation that most of its new megawatts will come from natural gas- and clean coal-fired generation with a healthy dose of wind, according to a presentation Tuesday by CEO David Crane at NRG’s first day-long conference for financial analysts.

Crane dissected NRG’s widely publicized repowering initiative, which he told analysts is “utterly consistent” with the type of company NRG has worked to become over the past two-and-a-half years since it emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy. NRG strives to be a company that “hedges at a premium” with load serving entities (LSEs), such as utilities, and does it by “taking the risk out of the transaction for the LSEs,” he said.

Crane said NRG’s entire strategy is driven by high natural gas prices, and it assumes that over the long term wholesale gas prices will not go below the $5.50-6.00 price range.

NRG has laid out its repowering strategy listing the relative volumes, total project costs, fuel source, number of proposed projects and probability for success for its five main generating groups — wind, natural gas, solid fuels (coal mostly), clean coal and nuclear. For each of these it also lists the amount of debt, percentage of interest by NRG and ultimately the equity commitment. The company is focusing on the Northeast, Texas, South-Central, and the West (California) regions.

Currently, NRG’s two proposed wind projects (450 MW) and nine gas-fired plants (2,800 MW) are given the highest probability of success (75%), according to Crane’s matrix summarizing the independent generator’s strategic plan. Collectively, the wind and gas facilities are estimated at $2.9 billion. Another three integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) plants, totaling $4.5 billion (2,250 MW), are assessed a 67% probability of success.

The two categories given only 50-50 chances of success are three solid fuel facilities costing $2.9 billion (1,800 MW), and 2,700 MW for two new nuclear generating units in Texas estimated at $5.5 billion. All of the projects would be heavily leveraged — between 65% and 80% — and collectively represent a potential equity investment of up to $1.5 billion, with two-thirds of that accounting for wind, gas and clean coal-fired plants.

NRG owns a majority interest (44%) in the existing South Texas nuclear complex near Matagorda Bay, with municipal utilities in San Antonio and Austin owning the rest (40% and 16%, respectively). It would propose to maintain the same 44% interest in any new units added to the existing complex. On another front, the company is focusing on making several bids for IGCC projects in several states’ upcoming requests-for-proposals (RFPs) in the Northeast (Connecticut, New York and Delaware).

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