No spike in natural gas demand for power generation in the Northeast is expected this summer as the Northeast Power Coordinating Council Inc. (NPCC) said last week that a recently completed reliability assessment shows that the region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer.

“The forecast NPCC coincident peak demand for the summer, which is the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region, is about 0.3% lower than last summer’s forecast, primarily due to the effectiveness of ongoing conservation, efficiency and demand response programs, despite a rebounding economy,” said NPCC CEO Edward Schwerdt.

The assessment also projects the region to have approximately the same amount of net generating resources available as it did for last year’s summer peak period. The NPCC said the overall reliability of the system on a day-to-day basis will be improved over the summer as a result of several significant factors: the return of New Brunswick’s Point Lepreau 660 MW nuclear generating unit, which has been off-line for several years; the planned addition of a 660 MW high-voltage direct current transmission line between Manhattan and New Jersey; and New England’s 345kV transmission line additions.

The assessment said “an adequate supply of electricity” is forecast this summer for New York City and throughout the state, as well as for Ontario and New England. The report added that the winter peaking Quebec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity demand by a wide margin.

Using peak forecasts for the 2013 summer from the New York Independent System Operator and the Independent System Operator of New England, the assessment reveals that New York’s forecasted peak demand of 33,279 MW is 16 MW lower than the forecast of 33,295 MW of summer 2012, while New England’s forecasted peak demand of 26,690 MW is 228 MW higher than the corresponding 2012 forecast of 26,462 MW.

The NPCC, which covers New York and the six New England states as well as the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, said a total of 1,607 MW of new capacity has been installed since last summer, which includes projects expected to be in service over the course of this summer. No delays to the in-service dates of new generating capacity are anticipated. Considering retirements and mothballing of 1,812 MW, the resultant net change in NPCC generation (from 2012 summer through 2013 summer) is minus 205 MW.

“The NPCC assessment uses probabilistic methods to evaluate thousands of simulated weather and system conditions. I want to emphasize that the assessment includes the consideration of unexpected and random events,” said Schwerdt.

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