The cash market overall averaged 9 cents higher Friday as eastern portions of the country were still in the crosshairs of a major storm that traversed the country earlier in the week. The advance was broad and led by New England locations, and the isolated points that did show losses endured setbacks of a couple of pennies or less. January futures fell 1.1 cents to $3.451, and February gave up 1.3 cents to $3.482. February crude oil shed $1.47 to $88.66/bbl.

Northeast points put up solid gains as the storms that raked the Midwest approached New England pricing points. “It’s a little cooler so prices are up,” said a Houston-based trader. “Transco into New York traded $4.10 to $4.09, and AGT [Algonquin Gas Transmission] was at $5.60 with Tennessee [Zone 6 200 L] at $5.15. It looks like the storm from the Midwest has cooled things off. The weather is starting to cool off and it doesn’t look like they will have highs in the 40s anytime soon. Highs will probably be in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

On Tennessee early offers were at $5.80 to $5.75, and everybody just hung out waiting for the offers to get tired. Finally, bids started getting hit. Algonquin started trading higher earlier. There were a few trades in the $5.70-5.80 range.”

Meghan Evans, an Accuweather.com meteorologist, reported that the nasty Midwest storm would make its way east over the weekend. “Near-blizzard conditions continue[d] Friday morning with heavy snow and high winds across parts of Michigan and northern Indiana as a storm moves along the U.S.-Canada border.” She expected the cold winds “to trigger lake-effect snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes into the weekend, and “Cold, stormy weather is marching eastward Friday as a second storm center develops off the East Coast. Snow and a wintry mix will impact the interior Northeast, while high winds howl in the major I-95 cities. Travel delays will result from the strong winds, while strong onshore winds will lead to localized coastal flooding in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”

AccuWeather.com forecast Friday’s high in Boston of 50 would drop to 35 by Monday and Tuesday. The normal high in Boston at this time of year is 40. New York City’s Friday maximum of 54 was expected to drop to 39 and 38 for Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The seasonal high in New York is 42.

At Algonquin Citygate weekend and Monday gas added a stout $1.46 to average $5.60, and deliveries to Iroquois Waddington added 31 cents to $4.35. At Tennessee Zone 6 200 L parcels rose $1.02 to $5.17.

Farther south, prices also firmed. On Dominion gas was quoted at an average $3.28, higher by 7 cents, and on Tetco M-3 weekend and Monday gas came in at $3.62, up a nickel. Deliveries into Transco Zone 6 New York added 46 cents to $4.09.

West Coast points were firm. Deliveries to Malin added 9 cents to $3.54, and at PG&E Citygate weekend and Monday gas went for $3.85, higher by 12 cents. At SoCal Border points gas was quoted at $3.64, up 7 cents, and deliveries to SoCal Citygate rose 7 cents to $3.75. On El Paso S Mainline weekend and Monday parcels rose 8 cents to $3.72.

Longer-term weather forecasts turned cooler. MDA Weather Services in its 11- to 15-day forecast shows a large ridge of below-normal temperatures extending from Montana to Texas and California to Missouri. “Nearly all of the major models underwent further cold changes in the past 24 hours, and with better forward progression of earlier cold finally showing up, the forecast was adjusted accordingly.

“Though there will still be some Pacific influence as related to the +WPO [Western Pacific Oscillation] setup, the blocking pattern in place across the high latitudes should continue to offer colder potential over a more expansive area than we’ve seen of late. While confidence has increased somewhat in the idea of getting more cold to come into play, the details of the cold remain in very low confidence.”

Futures traders don’t see prices moving much higher. “All factors considered, we still anticipate near term price resistance at the $3.50 level on an expectation that was reinforced in today’s trade. However, any weekend revisions toward the cold side especially into the northeast region could easily lift values into the $3.50-3.60 zone,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

“But for now, we are proceeding on the assumption that price lows have been placed for this year and that some additional price consolidation will be developing within the $3.26-3.50 range that has been built during the past week or so. Finally, we will note that today’s Baker Hughes rig count indicated a significant upswing of 13 units to 429 and we continue to feel that additional decreases will prove limited as many producers were able to place short hedges amidst the recent strong price upswing within the multi-year forward strips.”

Tom Saal in his work with Market Profile identified three value areas that he expects the market to test. Thursday’s value area at $3.457-3.421 was tested Friday, and other value areas are at $3.347-3.313 and $3.668-3.540. Saal expects these areas to be tested “eventually.”

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