With a modest (but expected to be brief) respite from harsh cold creeping into the forecasts for some areas, price advances slowed considerably at most points Tuesday and the formerly ultra-strong Northeast market was in wide retreat, with a few citygates seeing dollar-plus losses.

Most points were flat to up nearly 45 cents, with the West tending to record most of the smallest gains of less than a dime. Losses ranged from a couple of pennies or so to a little more than $2.30.

February futures, which had given solid support to the cash market with Monday’s spike of 31.2 cents, will have negative guidance for Wednesday after reclaiming much of that gain by retreating 24.7 cents Tuesday to $5.637 (see related story). Coupled with a Henry Hub increase of about a dime, the screen was trading at a discount of more than 55 cents to the hub.

The Northeast downturn occurred despite little change in the temperature forecast for Wednesday, with lows in the teens and 20s expected to remain the norm. The Midwest was due to stay below freezing for the most part, with some locations such as Omaha, NE, getting below zero, but other cities such as Chicago could expect a barely imperceptible warming trend.

The western end of the South was forecast to stay above freezing, but east of the Mississippi River most sections were expected to bottom out in the 20s. Meanwhile, cold arctic air will be plunging down through the Rockies Wednesday and reaching southern New Mexico by Thursday morning, leaving most of the West Coast and some of the desert Southwest as the only relatively moderate regions, The Weather Channel said.

Some indication of a slight easing of the severe cold was given by ANR canceling related restrictions (see Transportation Notes).

It’s still frigid for now, said a Midwest marketer who could expect a low of zero or slightly less in his area Wednesday, but conditions should be a little warmer early next week with lows just above freezing. It essentially will be a return to near-normal temperatures over the following two weeks, he said. At this point, though, “business is good” based on heating load, he said.

The marketer said he had mixed feelings on the near-term market; he sees cash falling a little bit Wednesday “but not penny for penny” with the screen’s weakness Tuesday. He also expected both futures and cash numbers to see weather-based rebounds later this week. Those probably will be tempered by pulls out of storage staying fairly heavy for at least the next few days.

The marketer said his company is still bothered by extended outages of Rockies Express delivery points near the pipeline’s Clarington, OH, terminus, saying it was depriving his market area of some Rockies production.

The National Weather Service (NWS) looks for below-normal temperatures to recede from almost all of the Midwest during the Jan. 11-15 workweek but to remain in force for most of the eastern half of the U.S. In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon, NWS predicted below-normal readings everywhere east and south of a line running southwestward from northwestern Ohio through central Oklahoma and the midsection of the Texas Panhandle to the southern half of New Mexico. It expects above-normal temperatures throughout the West Coast states to extend into central Nevada and southwestern Arizona and in states near the Canadian border through most of South Dakota and northern Iowa into northern Michigan.

Eight more rigs joined to the U.S. search for gas during the holiday-shortened workweek ending Dec. 31, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count. The Gulf of Mexico count rose by one while seven were added onshore. The latest tally was up 1% from a month earlier but was 40% less than the year-ago level, Baker Hughes said.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said he projects a storage draw of 158 Bcf for the week ending Jan. 1, up from a previous estimate of 155 Bcf. Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research predicted a similar 160 Bcf pull.

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