The continuing La Nina event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean will bring above-normal temperatures to a huge area stretching from the Rocky Mountains to the Mid-Atlantic over the next three months, but it is less clear how it will affect winter temperatures in the Northeast, according to forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The temperature outlook for December, January and February, which forecasts equal chances of normal, above-normal or below-normal temperatures in the Northeast, “reflects typical winter La Nina conditions,” the forecasters said Thursday.

NOAA said it expects above-average temperatures during the three-month period from Texas and the Southwest across the southern and central Rockies, the central and southern Plains and the lower and middle Mississippi valley. At the same time, below-average temperatures are expected along the nation’s northern tier from Washington to Minnesota and along the southern California coast.

The current La Nina — an unusual cooling of ocean surface temperatures off the western coast of South America — is expected to continue into 2011, bringing with it a likelihood of above-normal temperatures in much of the central and southern United States next spring and below-normal temperatures across much of the northern tier west of the Great Lakes, NOAA said.

AccuWeather.com meteorologist Joe Bastardi has predicted an early winter for the Northeast and harsh cold and snow across the nation’s northern tier (see NGI, Oct. 25). Temperatures in the East are expected to be near or below normal during most of December, and portions of New England and the upper Midwest will endure several cold waves with larger-than-normal temperature swings as winter progresses, Bastardi said. The first three months of 2011 will be especially “wicked” for people across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, he said. But Bastardi is calling for a “non-winter” from the interior Southwest to the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas, with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

WSI Corp. forecasters recently said they expect temperatures through the end of January to average below normal in the North Central region and Northwest and parts of the Southeast, but warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate across most of the Northeast and southern United States (see NGI, Nov. 1).

The South Central United States can expect a very mild winter and the East will see “seasonal temperatures closer to normal, with the best chances for cold occurring early and late in the winter,” WSI said.

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