The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) kicked off National Hurricane Awareness Week on Monday predicting the 2002 Atlantic hurricane (June 1-Nov. 30) season will likely have normal to slightly above normal levels of activity with nine to 13 tropical storms, six to eight hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ). NOAA officials warned the public not to become complacent following two seasons in which there were no direct hurricane hits on the United States.

“The public hasn’t seen a land-falling hurricane in two seasons and we know from experience — out of sight is out of mind,” said Max Mayfield, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “These are dangerous storms requiring the public to take precautions now before the season starts.” He recalled hurricane-spawned disasters can occur any season. Hurricane Andrew, which hit 10 years ago this August, developed during a season of below-normal hurricane activity.

In 2001, there were 15 named storms, nine of which became hurricanes but none of which made landfall. A normal Atlantic hurricane season typically brings an average of 10 tropical storms, of which six reach hurricane strength, with two classified as major.

Above-normal activity has been observed during six of the last seven Atlantic hurricane seasons. The key climate patterns guiding this year’s expected activity are long-term patterns of tropical rainfall, air pressure and higher temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean that are more conducive to hurricane development. These warmer ocean temperatures, combined with lower wind shear in the hurricane development region, have historically generated higher numbers of major hurricanes.

Based on past historical data, similar seasons have also averaged two landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and one to two hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.

There is a 45% probability of a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2002, a 35% probability of an above-normal season, and a 20% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center. The 2002 outlook represents the mixed combination of weak El Nino conditions and ongoing decadal-scale anomalies that are more conducive to an above-normal season, NOAA said.

The projected 2002 activity is centered approximately on the border between a near normal and an above-normal season, with a somewhat higher probability of being in the near-normal range. The 2002 season is not expected to be extremely active, as was observed during four of the last six seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999). However, it is expected to be more active than most of the relatively quiet 1971-1994 period.

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