The U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2004 through February 2005 continues to call for warmer-than-normal conditions across the entire West and Alaska and cooler-than-normal conditions in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, according to an update issued Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Elsewhere, including the key gas consuming markets in the Midcontinent/Midwest and New England, there are equal chances of above, below and normal temperatures.

NOAA is forecasting drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley and wetter-than-average conditions over parts of the South. In Hawaii, temperatures are expected to be above average with precipitation below average.

NOAA also is monitoring a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific, which is expected to continue into early 2005. NOAA’s scientists predict this El Nino will remain much weaker than the 1997-1998 El Nino event.

“El Nino wintertime impacts over the United States vary considerably depending on the character of the warming in the tropical Pacific,” said Dr. Vernon Kousky, NOAA’s lead El Nino/Southern Oscillation forecaster. “While we are carefully monitoring this current El Nino episode, we are expecting other climate patterns to play an equally important role in this winter’s weather.”

NOAA scientists say the leading climate patterns expected to impact this winter’s weather are long-term climate trends as well as El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Pacific/North American patter, which influence the jet stream and the track that storms take across the eastern Pacific and North America.

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