It was off to the races again in the Northeast Monday as multi-dollar spikes occurred at most citygates. But such strength was at odds with the general market, which showed a moderate bias to the upside in a mix of averages that ranged to about 20 cents up or down from flat.

Utility sources in the Northeast late last week had been anticipating a break in the frigid weather and further breaks in prices by Monday. But it was apparent that they were getting precious little of the former and absolutely none of the latter. There was a bit of easing in temperatures, but bitter cold and/or snow were expected to remain the weather watchwords for the region through Tuesday. As a producer who trades the Northeast market put it, “Yeah, temps are going to warm up…closer to freezing.” Calling it “a hunch,” he expects prices will take a dive again this week and then come back up.

A Midwest utility trader said weather will be an up-down affair this week in her region, but basically cold overall. “We’re cold today [Monday], due to warm up tomorrow and then get colder again a couple of days later.” A producer said Midwest prices tended to fall after starting higher.

It probably was no coincidence that much of the Gulf Coast’s softness was concentrated in Sonat and Florida Gas Transmission, which were among pipes ending or about to end OFOs or similar constraints (see Transportation Notes). FGT, which had lifted an Overage Alert Day notice Sunday, saw citygates experience Monday’s biggest decline of a little more than half a dollar.

Prices were generally down a few cents at western points, a marketer said. He reported Permian Basin gas starting up at $5.38 but trading down to $5.06. “Warm weather all over the Southwest will slaughter these prices. Eastern [cold] is the only factor supporting prices now.” Another western trader agreed about bearishly mild weather in the region, saying it was almost 70 degrees in Denver Monday and likely to stay that way until late in the week.

In the usual slow start of bidweek, one source complained about difficulty in finding any creditworthy counterparties willing to do fixed-price deals for February. “Everybody wants to index, and so far everything seems to be at a discount from index,” he said. He reported California border deals being done at index minus 2 cents and seeing San Juan-Blanco being bid at index minus 8 cents. He was able to manage one fixed price Monday — Blanco at $4.70.

A Calgary-based trader said Alberta weather had returned to unseasonably mild after a spate of normal cold last week. Thermometer readings were in the mid 50s F. Monday, she said. Her February deals included intra-Alberta at $7.10 (up nearly a dime from a quote Friday) and Chicago via Alliance in the mid $5.50s.

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll estimated that this week’s storage report will be a withdrawal of about 240 Bcf, which is 50 Bcf above his previous estimate. That volume would compare with 112 Bcf a year ago, Driscoll said. Kyle Cooper of Salomon Smith Barney had a similar outlook, predicting a withdrawal range of 235-245 Bcf.

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