The abundance of new gas-fired power generation added to the North American electric grid will ensure that there is adequate power supply this summer and through 2011, according to the 2003 Summer Assessment by the North American Electricity Reliability Council (NERC). However, there remain several areas of concern in the near-term, including Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island.

“We expect that generating resources will be adequate to meet projected demand for electricity in North America this summer,” said NERC CEO Michehl R. Gent. NERC’s members include 10 regional reliability councils the encompass nearly all the electric systems in the United States, Canada and the northern portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico. “Demand is not expected to significantly increase from last year,” Gent noted.

Total peak demand for electricity is projected to increase by 1% compared to the actual 2002 summer peak. The relatively flat growth is reflective of the slowdown in the North American economy, NERC said. Available generating resources are projected to increase by 4.5% over last summer; this increase also varies by region.

The report states that transmission systems in North America are expected to perform reliably, although transmission congestion will occur again this summer. Fuel supplies, inventories, and deliveries are also expected to be adequate.

The assessment identifies several areas of concern: southwestern Connecticut, New York City, and Long Island. In southwestern Connecticut, locally tight resources compounded by transmission limitations into and within this area make it particularly susceptible to reliability problems if there is lower than expected generating unit availability or extreme weather, NERC said.

The Connecticut state government recently placed a moratorium on all new transmission and generation projects in the state so that it can formulate a comprehensive energy plan. “Once this effort is completed, it is hoped that the moratorium will be lifted so that sorely needed transmission improvements can be made,” NERC said.

Although the balance of supply and demand is expected to be tight again in New York City and Long Island, there are adequate generating capacity and demand response programs in each locality to meet installed capability requirements, according to the report. Both the New York ISO and ISO New England are taking steps to reduce the possibility of supply shortages in these areas of concern.

Current projections indicate New York State will not meet its 18% installed reserve margin requirement beyond 2004. However, about 4,200 MW of new capacity have been approved that have not been included in projected reserve margins, the assessment noted. The completion of these plants will enable the state to meet its margin requirement.

New York City will not be able to meet locational capacity requirements beyond 2002 unless additional resources in the city become available, NERC said. Through 2011, more than 850 MW of new generation are needed the meet projected demand growth. However, if proposed projects are built the city should meet its requirements with demand-side management programs, according to the report.

“Ten LM-6000 gas turbines recently have been installed on Long Island, which when coupled with the TransEnergie 330 MW HVDC cable (currently under test) are projected to satisfy Long Island’s locational capacity requirement through 2008,” NERC said. “Projected demand growth after 2008 will require the addition of about 250 MW by 2011.”

NERC projects that the annual U.S. peak demand growth over the next 10 years will be about 2%. In Canada, demand is projected to grow by 1.2% over the 10-year period.

NERC-wide capacity margins continue to show increases over projections from previous years, peaking at more than 24% in 2005. Although electricity demand is expected to grow by about 71,000 MW in the near term, new resource additions totaling between 159,000 and 263,000 MW are projected over the same period, depending on the number of merchant plants assumed placed in service. Merchant developers have announced plans for more than 286,000 MW of new capacity over the next 10 years, which would be a 30.6% increase in installed generation. However, a portion of that new capacity will not be constructed do to market, economic and corporate financial conditions.

For the first time in several years starting in fall 2001, the magnitude of new generation projects being announced each day was exceeded by the amount being delayed or canceled. The majority of the project delays and cancelations are for projects identified for initial service in 2003 and 2004. Despite the cancelations, however, adequate capacity margins are still forecasted and significant amounts of new capacity are still projected for 2004 and beyond, NERC said.

About 7,088 miles of new transmission operated at 230 kV and higher are proposed to be added in the near term and a total of about 10,100 miles is proposed to be added during the 2002-2011 time frame, NERC determined. This represents a 5% increase in the total amount of installed transmission in North America over the next 10 years. The transmission grid is expected to operate reliably over the period but some areas of the grid are not adequate to transmission the full output of all new generation units to their desired markets. Although some transmission constraints are recurring and well known, new constraints are appearing as electricity flow patterns change.

To download the report, go to: https://www.nerc.com/~filez/rasreports.html.

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