With warming trends due to be under way Wednesday in some key market areas and seasonal to above-normal temperatures dominating the overall weather outlook, prices fell at nearly all points Tuesday. As on the day before, changes were generally small with few exceeding a dime except in the Northeast, where citygates tended to soften by amounts roughly similar to those by which they had risen on Monday.

A notable exception was Transco Zone 6’s New York pool. Its 66-cent spike Monday was followed by a bigger plunge of about $1.05 Tuesday.

A few flat to about a nickel higher quotes, mostly in the Gulf Coast, sustained mixed price movement. Otherwise losses ranged from 2-3 cents to about $1.05.

The March futures increase of 9.1 cents Monday obviously had little price-boosting impact in the face of bearish weather forecasts. The contract took another stab at providing prior-day support for cash numbers by rising 13.9 cents to $4.236 in its penultimate day of trading Tuesday (see related story).

Cash-screen convergence is working out fairly well as Henry Hub’s small loss left it only 2-3 cents or so below prompt-month futures.

Cold weather-based pipeline restrictions continue to fade as Tennessee partially lifted an OFO Action Alert in its northern market-areas Tuesday (see Transportation Notes).

Forecasts of warmer temperatures Wednesday in the Midwest will have quite a few locations staying above freezing for the first time in about a week or more. The Chicago low was expected to go from 29 Tuesday to about 34 Wednesday.

Sub-freezing lows are still predicted in much of New England and upstate New York, but more southerly areas such as New York City and Philadelphia can expect to bottom out around the freezing level.

Most eastern sections of the South will still be chilly Wednesday, but warmer than before. It will seem very much like spring in Florida and west of the Mississippi River, where highs will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

Much of Western Canada remains the deep-freeze area of the West, with cities like Calgary and Winnipeg forecast to experience bone-chilling sub-zero conditions. Otherwise the West will remain chilly to warm, with Phoenix predicted to peak in the mid 80s Wednesday. Even Denver’s forecast low around freezing will be largely counterbalanced by a high in the upper 60s.

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts above-normal temperatures during the March 2-6 workweek in a large triangle-shaped area with its southern base stretching from extreme southeastern California to western Mississippi and gradually narrowing to an apex in northeastern Wyoming. In its six- to 10-day forecast posted Tuesday afternoon, NWS looks for below-normal readings in the South Atlantic coastal states from Virginia to near the southern end of Florida’s peninsula. It also expects below-normal temperatures in virtually all of the Pacific Northwest along with Northern California and northwestern Nevada.

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