The National Hurricane Center (NHC) slightly upgraded chances of a tropical wave heading toward the Gulf of Mexico becoming the season’s first named tropical storm, and peak temperature forecasts in the 80s and 90s remained in place for most regions. But even with the additional supportive input of the previous day’s 4.8-cent rebound by July futures, cash prices were a little softer at a small majority of locations Thursday.

The Northeast, where a predicted midweek cooling trend is starting to take effect, saw most of the largest declines ranging from 2-3 cents to about 15 cents. Elsewhere prices were flat to as much as half a dollar higher. However, the Florida citygate’s leading uptick was something of an aberration after Florida Gas Transmission initiated a new Overage Alert Day (see Transportation Notes); other gains were capped at around 15 cents.

The cash market will return to recent negative guidance from prior-day futures Friday after the prompt-month Nymex contract fell by 5.6 cents Thursday (see related story) as it began its three-day countdown to expiration next Monday.

The Energy Information Administration was in line with most industry estimates in reporting an 81 Bcf addition to storage during the week ending June 18.

The West Coast and Canada will continue to see most of the cool to mild weather in North America going into the weekend. Apparently highs in the 80s and 90s almost everywhere else weren’t enough to sustain cash prices.

Another nonbullish factor was NHC’s saying Thursday afternoon a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea had a “medium chance” (40%) of becoming a tropical storm during the succeeding 48 hours after giving it 30% odds a day earlier. Although the system “remains disorganized,” NHC said, upper-level winds were forecast to become more conducive to development as it moves westward or west-northwestward around 10 mph over the next couple of days.

With PG&E calling off a one-day high-inventory OFO, Malin and the PG&E citygate recorded some of Thursday’s higher increases on either side of a dime.

Indicating the near-term rise of Upper Midwest warmth, Northern Natural Gas said its normal system-weighted temperature of 70 degrees at this time of year would increase to 77 and 76 on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

A Rockies producer said regional basis was still relatively weak with CIG about 75 cents lower than Henry Hub, but said that was quite a bit stronger than a year ago. However, high temperatures of 90 or above in the Denver area lately are substantially above the norm around 80, he said. He anticipates a Henry-CIG basis “correction” in the next month or two, mainly based on the uncertainty over how long a Gulf of Mexico deepwater drilling moratorium will last (see related story).

There’s “nothing really exciting but the heat,” according to a Midcontinent producer. Because of the local cooling demand, intrastate pipes tended to command the region’s strongest prices, he said.

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