Although the cash market showed a few signs of vitality in moving to near-flat numbers Tuesday following the previous day’s losses at nearly all points, there was little in the near-term outlook to suggest any chances of a substantive rally anytime soon.

Except for slightly higher temperatures returning to some sections of the South, most forecasts are not conducive to generating meaningful cooling load at this point. Monday’s screen softness and the ongoing lack of any tropical storm threat to Gulf of Mexico production were other negative factors for cash traders.

Flat quotes dominated at a large majority of locations, while a few increases of up to about a nickel were largely offset by approximately an equal number of declines that also ran about as high as a nickel. The California market tended to see most of the small gains.

The physical market will have even less futures support Wednesday after Nymex’s prompt-month contract dropped another 9.2 cents Tuesday (see related story).

The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day forecast for Aug. 22-26 indicates below-normal temperatures almost everywhere east of a line roughly approximating the course of the Mississippi River, while all of the above-normal readings are expected to occur in the more sparsely populated region west of a line from northeast Minnesota to West Texas.

Tropical Storm Gert weakened into what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) called a post-tropical low Tuesday as it headed northeastward toward oblivion in the colder waters of the North Atlantic. NHC was still giving only 20% odds of a large tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea becoming a tropical cyclone within the succeeding 48 hours.

Several parts of the South will have peak temperatures hitting the low to mid 90s again Wednesday, and the area from Texas and Oklahoma through much of the desert Southwest can expect highs around 100 or higher to continue. However, a warming trend in the Northeast will only raise the thermometer into the moderate low to mid 80s, and the Midwest will continue to experience readings in that same area. Highs will retreat a bit in the Rockies, and most of the West outside the desert Southwest, along with much of Canada, will remain on the mild side.

With Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) cautioning shippers about a potential Overage Alert Day due to forecasts of mid-90s peak temperatures in its Florida market area, FGT Zone 3 prices saw one of Tuesday’s few Gulf Coast gains, rising about 3 cents. However, Zones 1 and 2 were flat to slightly softer.

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) said Transco’s Zone 6-New York pool was barely softer even though volumes traded there on the ICE platform rose to 222,500 MMBtu from 124,000 MMBtu a day earlier. Henry Hub also was down a penny or so even with ICE activity jumping from 768,300 MMBtu to 858,100 MMBtu.

A Midwest utility buyer said his company’s gas-fired power generation demand has fallen way off since August began. July was a “bear” because of the hot weather that month, he said, but gas operations currently are almost on cruise control because of the moderation so far this month. He said it appears that the worst of the Midwest’s flooding from the Missouri River into the Dakotas has passed with no major disaster, and floodwaters will be receding more quickly fairly soon.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said his current projection of a 47 Bcf storage build being reported for the week ending Aug. 12 replaces his original estimate of 52 Bcf. Credit Suisse analyst Stefan Revielle looks for a slightly higher injection of 48 Bcf.

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