Significant weakening in the weather-driven demand outlook over the weekend had natural gas futures tumbling lower in early trading Monday. The March Nymex contract was off 23.0 cents to $4.342/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET.

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The weather outlook “jumped notably to the warmer side” over the weekend, with both the American and European modeling advertising the change, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“The main culprit is a shift toward a less favorable pattern on the Pacific side for delivery of cold air, something we had been watching for given the changes in the projected tropical forcing patterns, but it took longer for models to resolve this connection than expected,” Bespoke said in a note to clients early Monday.

The latest 15-day forecast leaned warmer than...