Natural gas futures fell in early trading Monday as overnight guidance pointed to an increased chance for a warmer-than-normal start to the winter heating season. The December Nymex contract was off 9.4 cents to $3.260/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET.

NGI Morning Natural Gas Price & Markets Coverage

The American and European weather models trended “decidedly bearish” overnight, with both models shedding 10-12 gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) from the outlook compared to 24 hours earlier, Bespoke Weather Services told clients early Monday.

More important, models “have shifted toward a pattern that would be very hostile toward cold as we reach the middle of the month,” Bespoke said. 

This pattern features “a strong upper level trough” moving over Alaska and extending down the west coast of the continent, coinciding...