Colder trends in the forecast, set against a backdrop of bullish expectations for prices in the year ahead, saw natural gas futures rally to start off 2021. As of around 8:45 a.m. ET Monday, the February Nymex contract was up 13.0 cents to $2.669/MMBtu.

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Compared to expectations prior to the New Year’s Day holiday, forecasts have shifted “materially colder,” enough to add around 20 gas-weighted degree days to the outlook through mid-January, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“While the 15-day period as a whole remains solidly warmer than normal, we have chipped away at a good deal of the warmth, and it is important, in our view, to note that the colder changes are focused over the next eight to 10 days,” Bespoke said. “This signals risk that models toward mid...