As the market factored in warmer forecasts that hinted at milder temperatures returning in mid-November, natural gas futures retreated in early trading Tuesday. After probing as high as $6.091/MMBtu in after hours trading, the November Nymex contract was back down at $5.742 at around 8:50 a.m. ET, off 15.6 cents from the prior day’s settle.

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The November contract is coming off an “eye-popping move higher” in Monday’s session as forecasts over the weekend raised the prospect of “colder weather amplifying early-winter risk premiums,” analysts at EBW Analytics Group observed.

A 0.5 Bcf/d day/day decrease in projected weather-driven demand for the Nov. 5-11 time frame was contributing to price declines early Tuesday, with modeling hinting at a “potential mid-November warm-up,” according to the firm.

“Production scrapes indicated a strong rebound to multi-month highs for supply,” while liquefied natural gas feed gas flows “slid at Sabine pass and Freeport, further releasing upward pressure,” the EBW analysts said. “Still, November options expiration today suggests a renewed run at $6 or higher remains possible, with significant price volatility likely into final settlement tomorrow.”

NatGasWeather observed degree day declines from both the American and European weather models overnight. The European shed a “more notable” 6-7 heating degree days by showing less chilly air reaching the Midwest and Northeast next week, according to the firm.

Both models “continued to favor a lighter demand pattern returning across much of the U.S. Nov. 5-10,” NatGasWeather said. “Essentially, out of the next 15 days,” next Monday through Nov. 4 “is still the only decent demand period forecast.

“…To our view, the Nov. 5-10 pattern can trend colder in time, but if it doesn’t, the 11-15 day period will maintain a bearish lean that could disappoint in time.”

The amount of demand added by the weather data over the weekend break “clearly…wasn’t enough to justify a 60-cent spike” for prices, NatGasWeather added, pointing to the upcoming contract expiration as likely contributing to the run higher.

Meanwhile, looking ahead to Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report, a seventh consecutive above-average weekly injection could be in store.

NGI’s machine learning model predicted a 94 Bcf injection for the week ended Oct. 22. If realized, such a build would far exceed the historical comparisons. For the year-earlier period, EIA recorded a 32 Bcf injection, while the five-year average is a 62 Bcf build.

EIA data show weekly Lower 48 injections outpacing the five-year average since early September. The last reported build to fall behind the prior five-year norm was for the week ended Sept. 3.

December Nymex crude oil futures were up 36 cents to $84.12/bbl at around 8:50 a.m. ET.