Weather model volatility left natural gas traders flummoxed on Monday, with double-digit increases early in the session nearly erased by the close. With the frigid cold descending from Canada into the Lower 48 seen possibly continuing into March, though, the March Nymex gas futures contract settled 1.9 cents higher than Friday at $2.882. April edged up 2.1 cents to $2.862.

Lower 48 production

Spot gas prices also retreated across most of the country, though trading in the Northeast was notably volatile. New England cash traded as high as $14.000, but NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 2.5 cents to $3.985.

Even with big swings in the weather data, there’s little argument that the next couple of weeks are poised to be the coldest the country has experienced in years. The issue in the near term...