The natural gas market returned from Thanksgiving seemingly ready to pull the plug on winter. 

Amid forecasts insisting on a milder December pattern that would substantially mitigate risks of a winter supply crunch, natural gas forwards dropped sharply during the Nov. 24-Dec. 1 trading period, NGI’s Forward Look data show.

Henry Hub fixed price forwards for January fell 77.7 cents during the period to $4.278/MMBtu.

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Lofty prices overseas and the prospect of needing to price out U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to preserve domestic supply had driven Henry Hub to new heights in the lead-up to winter. However, so far the kind of space heating...