The Northeast rejoined the overall market in recording mostly moderate losses Tuesday. Heat levels across most of the southern third of the U.S. are remaining somewhat onerous, but highs in the 80s or less continue to dampen cooling load.

Flat numbers were frequent throughout NGI‘s price chart, but losses of 2-3 cents to about 15 cents were dominant. They didn’t stand out as conspicuously as before, but Northeast citygates again saw most of the largest declines. Gains of up to a couple of cents or so were few and far between.

The previous day’s decline of 1.3 cents by the about-to-expire August futures contract was a minor drag on the cash market, and it will continue to have slightly negative guidance Wednesday after a screen loss of 1.6 cents (see related story).

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the chance of tropical cyclone development Tuesday morning for a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea to 20%, and that afternoon it further raised the odds to 30%. Associated showers and thunderstorms had become more concentrated as the system moved toward the west-northwest about 200 miles south of western Cuba, NHC said. Slow development is possible over the next couple of days, it added.

One factor that likely enhanced last week’s Northeast and Mid-Atlantic price spikes in the midst of a record-setting heat wave is that reported sendout from the Cove Point LNG import terminal on the Maryland coast has been zero since May 25, according to the North American Terminal Survey (NATS) by Pan EurAsian Enterprises. “Prior to that, the facility was running mainly at boil-off rates,” NATS said. The facility has been fretting over not having enough LNG deliveries to maintain its cryogenic system, but relief may be on the way if FERC approves an agreement for Shell to send a cargo to Cove Point next month for resale to Statoil (see related story).

Peak temperatures are starting to rebound a bit in the Midwest and Northeast, but both regions will stay only modestly hot with few highs above the upper 80s. Tell that to folks in much of the South, where highs will continue to reach the mid to upper 90s in many cases.

Tennessee Zone 4 had a very wide range because, as a source explained, the zone has two parts. Trades into its 300 Leg have been trading at a huge discount to the 200 Leg so far in July, which has resulted in very low-end prices for Zone 4 during most of the month, he said.

El Paso said linepack was back to normal (see Transportation Notes), but Kern River continued to report linepack at the bottom end of its desired range. Quotes for Kern River and El Paso in the San Juan Basin were flat, but El Paso-Permian fell about a nickel.

A western trader said so far he hadn’t seen much bidweek activity going on. However, it’s looking like Redwood Path capacity restrictions are going to cause a sizeable drop in the PG&E citygate index for August, he said.

Likely as a result of futures weakness, IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) said August baseload prices traded on its system were falling Tuesday. For instance, the Southern California border fell nearly a dime from Monday’s average of $4.53 to about $4.45, ICE said, while Panhandle Eastern number saw a more modest decline from $4.25 to a little more than $4.20.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said his final estimate of a 36 Bcf storage addition for the week ending July 22 is down from an original one of 43 Bcf. Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans looks for a significantly higher build of 52 Bcf in Thursday’s Energy Information Administration report, to be followed by injections of 42 Bcf, 38 Bcf and 61 Bcf for the weeks ending July 29, Aug. 5 and Aug. 12, respectively.

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