With a neo-ice age descending into the Northeast and Midwest, an overall bull market was to be expected Friday. But there were notable inconsistencies. While most of the Northeast continued to soar, Algonquin citygates and Iroquois Zone 2 took major dives. Outside the Northeast, quotes tended to range from flat to mildly lower in San Juan Basin and the Rockies to up about 30 cents on Dominion in Appalachia.

Lake-effect snows were building in the Midwest and western areas of the Northeast. Following frigid weekends in both regions, a new cold front was expected to proceed eastward from the Midwest, leaving behind more moderate temperatures there, but reinforcing the deep-freeze effect in the Northeast, according to The Weather Channel.

Northeast temperatures were in the 40s Friday morning but heading to the 30s that afternoon, said a utility buyer, adding, “We’ll feel the full brunt of this cold front by tonight [Friday].” After a strong start, market-area numbers softened in the middle of the trading session, but then rallied in late deals, he said.

Meanwhile, “temperatures are down in the teens here in Middle America,” said a Midcontinent trader. “It’s the coldest weather of the season. Looks like I won’t be washing my car this weekend.”

Another Midcontinent/Midwest trader said he had expected Northern Natural’s demarc and Ventura points to be stronger than the $5.00s, considering weekend temperatures would dip below 10 degrees in Minnesota and the Dakotas, which constitute part of the pipeline’s market area. He noted that pipeline OFOs wouldn’t have been surprising, but he wasn’t aware of any.

OFOs or similar constraints were in effect for some pipes in the Gulf Coast and Northeast. One trader thought Sonat’s Gulf Coast-leading advance of 20 cents was spurred by an OFO Type 3 (see Transportation Notes).

One Northeast utility illustrated the value of having firm transport at the right times. It usually reports a mix of field and delivered deals, but with market-area numbers realizing much greater gains than those in the production area Thursday and Friday, the utility made all purchases Friday in the Gulf Coast in order to utilize its firm capacity to the maximum.

Intra-Alberta prices ignored their usual tendency to follow the screen (down 16.1 cents) and instead posted an increase, a Calgary-based producer said. Below-freezing temperatures in the province played a part in that, even though they’re “about normal for this time of year,” he said.

The West tended to see less price strength that other markets largely because its weather was expected to be relatively mild except in upper elevations and the upper Rockies, a marketer said.

A Texas producer commented that it’s been a good new year so far for producers with price levels where they are, “but I don’t know how long the utilities and end-users are going to put up with it.”

“One would think with this cold weather that we’ll keep getting some strong prices, but I see a warmer than normal February keeping prices in check,” an eastern marketer said. “They say El Nino will cause a warmer than normal late winter. People are more apt to use their storage if it is only going to be a brief stint of coldness, so watch for a large withdrawal in the coming weeks.”

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