There was a lot of contrast in price movement Thursday. After leaving the rest of the market way behind with numbers that had topped $20 in some cases the day before, Northeast citygates started to come back down to earth with multi-dollar plunges. Meanwhile, most other points (outside the Rockies) soared by about 30 cents or more. Some Gulf Coast pipes saw dollar-plus advances, with others there and in the Midcontinent rising nearly a dollar.

Single-digit upticks in the Rockies were the primary exceptions to the non-Northeast bullishness.

However, there was something approaching consensus that the overall bullishness associated with a prolonged spell of severe cold in the East was passing Thursday, and that Friday would witness all-around lower prices. Sources cited a trend of falling late quotes in several areas, including the Northeast and Gulf Coast; a screen retreat of 21.5 cents; the usual weekend drop in demand; and especially traders looking ahead to a break in the recent mini-Ice Age next week.

The futures dive came despite EIA’s report of a 210 Bcf storage withdrawal last week, which many would have considered bullish because it both slightly exceeded most prior expectations and greatly advanced growth of the year-on-year deficit. Any ancillary support that gas might have been deriving from crude oil prices was fading also. The March crude contract at Nymex (February is already off the board) fell to $32.25/bbl as traders responded to signs that the lengthy strike that crippled Venezuela’s oil exports may be close to ending.

Northeast buyers obviously were able to discern light at the end of the tunnel (or more properly, a bit more warmth at the end of the weekend), as regional delivered prices tumbled at least as fast or even faster Thursday than they had soared Tuesday and Wednesday. All area citygates averaged less than $13 Thursday.

“It [market] dropped like a rock in the Northeast,” said a utility trader. She was able to fill a request for same-day supply at the Algonquin citygate at $17, but said prices but fell drastically from there, adding, “Sure am glad I sold early.” The trader thought fears of potential wellhead freeze-offs drove the big gains in the production area. However, a Gulf Coast marketer said he was seeing no flow interruptions from freeze-offs as of Thursday afternoon and he didn’t expect any.

The marketer agreed with the prospect for overall softness Friday, but thought the Florida market should stay relatively strong due to freezing temperatures being due in the state Friday morning. “I see $6.50 gas in FGT’s Zone 3 tomorrow, which would be down from today but still a dollar over the screen,” he said. As if to bolster his prediction, Florida Gas Transmission issued an Overage Alert Day notice at 15% tolerance but said it expected the tolerance to fall to 5% or less Friday (see Transportation Notes).

One source jested that whatever happens in gas prices, everyone can expect higher orange juice prices in the next few months if the freeze substantially damages Florida’s crop.

Although California, Pacific Northwest and intra-Alberta points shared in the general market spikes, Rockies quotes were unable to manage anything more than single-digit gains.

A western buyer quoting a San Juan-Bondad range of $4.15-30 said nothing was happening yet in February business, but it was a moot point for him. He didn’t expect to buy any baseload anyway, preferring to swing through the month.

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