Despite predicted temperature moves that were more often slightly higher than conducive to boosting heating load, prices recorded single-digit gains at a large majority of points Tuesday.

The screen wasn’t any help in figuring out the cash market’s modest strength, either, although one source suggested that the sojourn into slightly positive territory by April futures during the morning may have given a small late lift to physical quotes. But that would seem to have been easily negated by the contract’s decline of 6.6 cents a day earlier.

A small number of scattered locations saw losses of 2-3 cents to a little more than a nickel. They were greatly outnumbered by points ranging from flat to about a dime higher.

Cash traders will again have modestly negative screen guidance Wednesday after prompt-month futures retreated from the morning’s modest foray higher to wind up Tuesday at $4.516, down 1.1 cent (see related story).

To be sure, one could find instances where temperatures were falling again, especially in the Rockies. Sub-freezing lows had become the norm again there as well as in most of Canada. But for every example of slightly colder weather in the forecast, there were several others where moderating conditions were continuing. Much of the South currently is experiencing cool to mild spring-like conditions.

Despite a modest price increase only about a nickel, Henry Hub volumes traded on the IntercontinentalExchange online platform took a big upward leap from 605,200 MMBtu Monday to 823,900 MMBtu Tuesday.

Southern Natural Gas reflects how rapidly what some had perceived to be potential price-killing high levels of storage have dwindled during a mostly frigid January and February. After hitting 97%-full working gas inventories in its two facilities at one point around mid-winter, Southern reported that as of last Thursday volumes stood at 19.1 Bcf, or 32% of its total capacity of 60.0 Bcf. That compared with 31.7 Bcf (53%) on March 5, 2009 and 25.7 Bcf (43%) on March 6, 2008, the pipeline said.

A Midcontinent producer lamented that he was unable to make any money Tuesday because there were “no [basis] spreads today.” Noting the dearth of weather-related support for prices, he said about the only thing he could see giving a little bit of help to cash quotes in late deals were the early higher numbers at Nymex, even if those faded during the afternoon.

However, “the trend is your friend,” as some futures traders like to say, the producer continued. There may be more softness between now and then, he said, but he expects to see a cash uptrend begin to develop toward the April bidweek as storage injection season gets close.

A Texas-based marketer cited a mildly colder spell coming in the Northeast, “with maybe a trace of snow,” as one possible reason for slightly higher prices Tuesday, but that should be short-lived. He anticipates an overall mostly softer market for the rest of the month, but saw a chance of prices staying relatively flat Wednesday, though.

Pipelines are reminding customers that Daylight Savings Time will begin at 2 a.m. local time Sunday, requiring most people to set their clocks ahead by one hour. That will result in the Saturday (March 13) gas day being only 23 hours long, the pipelines said, and nominations for that day should take account of the shorter flow period.

Analyst Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research said he looks for a 119 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending March 5. Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said his most recent projection of a 117 Bcf pull is up from an earlier estimate of 110 Bcf. Citi Futures Perspectives’ Tim Evans said he expects a much lower draw of 95 Bcf in the upcoming report, followed by huge dropoffs to 25 Bcf and 30 Bcf in the weeks ending March 12 and March 19, respectively.

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