Moderate softening continued in the swing market Thursday for the most part, but points here and there were flat or eked out tiny gains. Except for some lingering chill in the Upper Plains, Rockies and Western Canada, temperatures were converging toward pleasant levels appropriate for mid-spring in nearly all other regions (cooler in the Southwest and warmer in the Northeast). However, a cold front was due to move into the Midwest by the weekend.

Most losses were less than a dime, but they ranged as high as nearly 20 cents. South Texas and Northeast citygates tended to garner the lion’s share of declines greater than a dime.

Overnight lows not far above freezing in the Rockies kept the market there firmer than most, with Rockies points generally flat to slightly higher or lower. However, a sign of impending weakness in western demand was PG&E’s projection on its Pipe Ranger bulletin board that linepack might be rising above maximum target levels by Sunday.

With highs in the Northeast in the 70s and expected to stay that way through at least Saturday, it was hardly surprising to a regional marketer that the spot market was weak Thursday, “and I expect it to get even weaker for the weekend.” His prediction was bolstered by the government’s report of a 78 Bcf storage injection for the week ending April 23, which was near the high end of previous expectations and generally considered bearish, especially in comparison with the year-ago build of 52 Bcf.

But an intrastate Texas trader said he wouldn’t make any bets on weekend price direction. “I don’t see much demand, but because it’s the first of the month, who knows” about the people who are going into the month short on baseload, he asked rhetorically. “It’s the first month in a while that we’re starting nearer $6 than $5” in both spot and Nymex prices, he continued. Previously the aftermarket usually has started low and moved higher, but that trend might get reversed in May, he said. The trader noted that the South Texas 2 nuclear unit was on its way to returning to full power as expected. The Comanche Peak 1 nuke hadn’t started ramping back up yet as expected, “but [it will] any day now,” he said.

However, even with the nukes coming back online, a Houston-based marketer detected a sign of potential Texas price strength. During bidweek he saw Waha basis at minus 53-54 cents, but said Waha index deals were trading at premiums of as much as plus 10-15 cents. That indicated to him expectations of a strong aftermarket. Normally Texas is already well on its way toward “sweat city” status by late April, but it just hasn’t happened yet this year, he said. But such unusual conditions can’t last much longer, and the Waha premiums suggest traders are looking for those Texas air conditioners to be cranking up big-time during May.

The marketer also said index deals at most Midcontinent points were either less negative than usual or at a slight premium at Northern Natural’s demarc and Ventura locations. Discussing a recurring theme during bidweek of buyers finding suppliers more reticent to let their gas go than usual, he said he had little trouble finding gas, but then he started making purchases on April 22 before the official bidweek period began. Perhaps one reason for the slowness in trading was that utilities find it harder to predict their loads during a shoulder month like May, he speculated.

Other sources continued to comment on a relative lack of readily available May supplies. May likely will be the cheapest month of the summer period to put gas into storage, so sellers had no trouble finding somebody to take their gas, one said, adding that it seems like a long time since it’s been such a seller’s market. “I was still getting calls for May supply today [Thursday], but I was all done,” he said. He believes it probably won’t be until next Wednesday that the market really gets a handle on how people have their May supply positions aligned.

A Northeast marketer found it a fairly uneventful bidweek “except for the remarkable lack of liquidity. Everybody had little trouble agreeing on reasonable prices, but it seemed like nobody was playing” on the supply side, he said. That mystified him somewhat because “it wasn’t like there was any huge demand to satisfy.” The marketer said he also saw a little tightening of New England citygate spreads relative to New York City-area deliveries.

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