Models Hint at ‘Decreased Risk’ for Early January Cold as Natural Gas Futures Slide

With weather models suggesting a decreased chance of colder temperatures arriving to ring in the new year, natural gas futures fell in early trading Wednesday. The January Nymex contract was down 3.1 cents to $2.651/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

Overnight changes to the weather data were bearish, with models indicating a “decreased risk” of colder temperatures developing around the start of the new year, according to Bespoke Weather Services.

“While the late month situation remains a lower confidence one, a failure of cold to materialize would imply that the La Nina state is able to resist any notable shift eastward in tropical forcing, which would keep the overall warm state rolling on into January,” Bespoke said. “…This is what all of the long-term climate modeling...