The cash market saw one of its most synchronized price movements ever Thursday as nearly all points ranged from flat to less than a nickel higher. A couple of scattered points fell up to 4 cents, and a couple of others rose slightly more than a nickel.

Once again fundamental support appeared lacking, leaving a couple of traders to assume that cash was riding the coattails of the screen’s previous-day advance of 5.5 cents. As a Southeast utility buyer pointed out, “storm hype” didn’t seem to apply when a tropical depression was moving away from offshore platforms and a hurricane was still well out in the Atlantic and not in the least intimidating to Gulf of Mexico interests.

“We’re scratching our heads over why prices didn’t go down,” the utility buyer continued. Maybe Tropical Depression 12 had some impact Wednesday when it was forming in the eastern Gulf, but its eastward heading made it a market non-entity Thursday, she said.

TD 12 was bringing plenty of rain in its trek toward the Florida Gulf Coast, and a tropical storm warning remained in effect for that area from Englewood northward to Indian Pass. At 4 p.m. CDT the center of the depression was about 145 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, FL and moving toward the east at nearly 7 mph. Strengthening to a tropical storm was expected Thursday night or Friday, and a turn to the east-northeast was likely by Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Fabian appeared set to punish Bermuda but its significance to Gulf of Mexico production had about dwindled to zero. The storm’s eye was about 415 miles south of Bermuda at 5 p.m. AST and its north-northwest heading at nearly 16 mph was expected to bring Fabian near or over the island late Friday, according to the NHC. Portions of the U.S. East Coast will see large sea swells from Fabian, it added.

New York City-based Weather 2000 was confident that TD 12 would deserve the moniker of Tropical Storm Henri by Friday. “(Soon to be) Henri is a very slow mover and is unfortunately inundating already-saturated Florida with more flooding rains and severe thunderstorms,” the consulting firm said in a Thursday afternoon advisory. “Henri should traverse across the Florida peninsula and re-emerge into the eastern Atlantic/Gulf Stream over the weekend. Any decrease in intensity while over land could be rather quickly reversed when back over warm waters…

“As Fabian traverses over warmer waters in the Sargasso Sea and eastern Gulf Stream, a resurgence in intensity (perhaps back to low-Cat[egory] 4 status) is very likely over the next 48 hours. All interests in and around Bermuda (and later coastal southeast Canada), along with marine/shipping interests, should take heed of government and emergency advisories of this very powerful hurricane.

“Yet another wave, recently off the Cape Verde Islands, looks very healthy to us. We believe tropical depression classification is necessary but will likely occur (by NHC) in the non-market hours between 5 p.m.ET this evening [Thursday] and 5 a.m. ET tomorrow morning [Friday]. So be prepared for TD 13 announcements.”

The Energy Information Administration’s report of 70 Bcf in storage injections last week came in at the low end of prior expectations, yet the screen took an immediate dive after the announcement before gradually recovering for a gain of 11.6 cents on the day.

Opinion about weekend price direction was mixed. “Cash was kind of weak even before the EIA report,” said a Northeast utility buyer. “I had expected falling numbers early Thursday and even more weakness after the storage report, but it didn’t turn out that way.” Forecasts are not indicating any warmup from the 70s in her area through the middle of next week, “so you can’t count on any air conditioning load here,” she said. The buyer had doubts that Thursday’s futures uptick would have cash following the screen Friday, noting that after all it would involve trading for the lower-demand weekend and weather-related demand remains weak throughout most of the nation.

A Calgary-based producer saw a chance that spot prices might continue a bit higher early Friday. But, he added, “if Nymex opens weaker, I would expect cash to go negative pretty quickly in response.” He reported a “little run” in late Thursday deals, but characterized it as insignificant. The West was still the last remaining repository of serious summer heat Thursday, but the producer said some of that heat is due to dissipate this weekend. “I could see prices crashing if it keeps getting cooler next week,” he commented.

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