Mexico is unlikely to substantially increase its natural gas production over the next five to six years, according to upstream regulator Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH).


In its latest “prospectiva” or outlook for oil and natural gas output, the regulator modeled high, low and medium production growth scenarios for each hydrocarbon.

The high case scenario for natural gas shows production peaking at 4.73 Bcf/d in 2026, then dropping to 4.26 Bcf/d by 2028. This compares to production of 4.06 Bcf/d recorded in August. 

Under the medium scenario, production peaks at 4.24 Bcf/d in 2026 before falling to 3.68 Bcf/d in 2028.

Finally, under the low scenario, production starts falling immediately to average 3.78 Bcf/d in 2023 before rising slightly to a peak of 3.93...