Mexico’s energy system relies heavily on U.S. natural gas and this could lead to price increases and supply shortfalls if the United States focuses more on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export market, according to analysts at Fitch Ratings Inc.

If the U.S. increases gas exports to Europe as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “Mexico could face high gas prices and shortages,” said Velia Valdes, an associate director in Latin America Corporates. She spoke during a webinar Fitch organized on the Mexican energy sector.

So far, the Russia-Ukraine crisis hasn’t had a visible impact on U.S. natural gas pricing. Given infrastructure constraints, the United States also cannot in the short term produce more LNG than it already is producing. 

Valdes said Winter Storm...