San Juan Basin flatness was the exception to Thursday’s anticipated continuing slide in prices. Otherwise, losses between a nickel and a little over a dime in the Rockies/Pacific Northwest, California and intra-Alberta were fairly moderate in comparison with declines ranging from about a dime to nearly 30 cents elsewhere.

Returning offshore volumes that had been shut in before tropical storm threats had eased, low load throughout the East as well below normal temperatures reigned, and the prior-day futures softness were all factors in pushing cash numbers lower. It was appropriate that the smallest drops were in the West, because it’s the only region where true summer conditions remain.

The Energy Information Administration said 72 Bcf was injected into storage last week, a volume that was within the range of previous expectations but a little below the consensus area. Nevertheless, Nymex traders regarded it as bearish, sending September natural gas futures down 17.2 cents. The gas disconnect with crude oil was still in effect, because crude set another record ($45.75/bbl) along the way to recording its first $45-plus daily settlement. Oil was up 70 cents to $45.50 at the end of the day as traders were unable to shake off worries about supplies in such places as Iraq, Venezuela and Russia.

Noting that for the second week in a row the EIA had matched the midpoint of the range in his prior estimation, Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper said, “Based on early estimates and even considering production shut-ins, we expect next week’s number to be larger than this week.”

As predicted, Gulf of Mexico production shut-ins were rapidly growing smaller, with Minerals Management Service reporting a drop of nearly half. In its survey of 41 companies, MMS said it recorded 1,114.32 MMcf/d of shut-in gas Thursday compared with 2,047.97 MMcf/d Wednesday. However, its count of evacuated platforms went up from 108 to 154.

The evacuations also are ending quickly, though. ExxonMobil, Shell, Kerr-McGee, Murphy Oil, Anadarko and Marathon were among producers reported Thursday as starting to return workers to offshore sites and restoring output from wells that had been shut in.

El Paso Corp. reported that all 160 MMcf/d of shut-in reductions Wednesday on its Tennessee system had been restored, and that the Sonat shortfall of 200 MMcf/d Wednesday dropped to about 15 MMcf/d by late Thursday afternoon.

Close, but no cigar. Tropical Storm Bonnie almost reached hurricane status Wednesday night but failed before moving onshore near Apalachicola, FL late Thursday morning. It remained on a northeasterly tracking after hitting land.

Hurricane Charley became a category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph and a well defined eye while moving through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, according to The Weather Channel. Charley was expected to reach the Florida Keys and the west coast of the Florida peninsula Friday. The National Hurricane Center’s projection shows Charley proceeding north through Florida and on into the other South Atlantic states, keeping it away from Gulf of Mexico production. However, hurricanes have been known to do odd things such as make an unexpected sharp veer to the west.

The storm shut-ins are quickly becoming a non-event for gas prices, commented a Northeast marketer. However, “I was surprised that natural gas futures didn’t get any support from crude setting yet another record,” he said. Crude could get priced out of the fuel market if this continues, he noted, but for now gas is still relatively more expensive. He calculated that as of Thursday morning, 0.3% fuel oil delivered at New York Harbor cost $5.45 (converted for gas equivalence), or about 35 cents less than Thursday’s Transco Zone 6 citygates.

“We’re going to try to stay dry over the next couple of days,” laughed a Florida utility buyer. All the rain that the state is getting and will get from Bonnie and Charley probably will lower temperatures enough that Florida Gas Transmission can end its Overage Alert Day notice, which was in effect for the second day Thursday.

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