U.S. tight oil production should recover quickly as world energy demand recovers from Covid-19, but Lower 48 output may not again hit its previous forecasts, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday.

Primary energy demand growth

The Saudi-led oil cartel, aka OPEC, in its flagship 14th annual World Oil Outlook (WOO), cited the “unprecedented scale and impact” from the coronavirus, which has crushed oil demand. Researchers assessed the medium- and long-term prospects for oil to 2045, providing alternative scenarios and sensitivities that could impact the petroleum industry in the years ahead.

Even with the sharp drop in oil demand this year, OPEC is predicting global primary energy consumption should continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 25% to...