Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) last Wednesday unveiled long-awaited legislation that seeks to curb heat-trapping greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but the measure isn’t likely to make significant headway this year given that the chamber’s already-packed agenda which includes consideration of a new Supreme Court nominee.

“The combination of a tight congressional schedule, the spat over immigration and an uncontrolled oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico still may prove to be hurdles too high for even the Obama White House to surmount when it comes to getting a bill to regulate greenhouse gases enacted this year. We’ve cut our odds to 10% from the slightly better than 50-50 we espoused only a few weeks ago that a climate bill can get enacted this year,” said energy analyst Christine Tezak with Robert W. Baird & Co.

Veteran lobbyist Greg Means with the Alpine Group told GasMart 2010 attendees Wednesday climate change legislation was “dead, that’s D-E-A-D,” until at least 2013 (see separate story). “They don’t have the votes.”

“Given the relatively few legislative days remaining and high priority agenda items, including financial reform and a Supreme Court nomination, we believe it is unlikely that the bill can become law this year,” said FBR Capital Markets in its review of the bill.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was less than enthused about the chances for the nearly 1,000-page American Power Act this year. He has made it clear that he will not take a climate change bill to the floor unless sponsors have rounded up the necessary 60 votes to fend off a filibuster, CQ Today reported.

The bill has been in trouble ever since Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, the only Republican sponsor of the legislation, withdrew from the talks in April due to Reid’s plan to place immigration legislation ahead of climate change on the Senate calendar (see NGI, May 3). That leaves the two Democrats, and as one Capitol Hill critic put it, “when have Kerry and Lieberman won anything?”

The bill’s goal is to reduce global warming pollution to 17% of 2005 levels by 2050. Key parts of the legislation seek to:

“We appreciate the inclusion of language aimed at helping move toward the greater use of natural gas in merchant power generation and vehicles. While a useful starting point, we believe much more could be done right now to significantly reduce greenhouse gases and other pollutants by providing clean energy transition incentives to electric utilities as well,” said Regina Hopper, president of America’s Natural Gas Alliance.

The American Gas Association (AGA), which represents natural gas utilities, echoed the sentiment. “While we are encouraged that natural gas utilities…are treated more equitably than in previous climate bills, we remain hopeful that the Senate will more fully recognize that natural gas customers represent the only sector of the population that has reduced carbon emissions by 40% over the last 40 years,” said AGA President David N. Parker.

Environmental, consumer and small business organizations blasted the legislation as another “taxpayer giveaway to giant nuclear and other energy corporations wrapped in the guise of doing something about our climate crisis.” From the renewables camp, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) asked for swift action on the legislation.

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