The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), operator of most of the Lone Star State’s power grid, anticipates sufficient installed generating capacity to serve forecasted peak demands during fall and winter with “a historically typical amount” of generator outages, ERCOT said Tuesday. “It appears we are likely to see a cooler fall season overall, with temperatures typically within the average range seen over the past 12 years,” said ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman. “We also are seeing strong indications of normal rainfall or even wetter than normal in some areas. With more than 75,500 MW of generation available, ERCOT expects to be prepared for the anticipated peak demand of about 48,700 MW this fall. Electric generation providers typically schedule maintenance outages during fall and spring to prepare for more extreme weather that occurs during winter and summer. It is typical for more than 9,000 MW to be offline for maintenance during fall, and unplanned power plant outages could range from the typical 3,400 MW to nearly 7,000 MW. Taking these factors into account, ERCOT said it expects reserves to range from about 2,600 MW, if peak demand is significantly higher than expected, to more than 14,000 MW under expected conditions.
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