Renowned hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University is expecting a more active than normal hurricane season this year with an above average probability of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones and U.S. hurricane landfall. In the extended range forecast released on Friday, Gray’s team of meteorologists predicted there would be eight hurricanes, three of them intense hurricanes and a total of 12 named storms this year.

Last year there were 12 named storms but only four hurricanes, and only two of those ever made it past category three intensity (winds 111-130 mph). Nevertheless, 2002 was an active year in the Gulf of Mexico with six named storms and significant disruption to natural gas and petroleum producing infrastructure and operations, mainly because of tropical storm Hanna and hurricanes Isidore and Lili, the last of which made it to category four intensity (winds 131-155 mph) while it was moving through offshore Louisiana production facilities.

Information through March 2003 indicates that the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season will be an even more active one, Gray said. “We expect Atlantic basin net tropical cyclone activity in 2003 to be about 140% of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 30% above the long-period average. We foresee an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean landfall.”

Gray estimates that 2003 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 12 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), three intense (category three through five) hurricanes (average is 2.3), eight intense hurricane days (average is five) and a hurricane destruction potential of 100 (average is 71).

The current weak El Nino event is expected to dissipate by the beginning of the active part (mid-August) of the 2003 hurricane season and the atmosphere and oceans are expected to return to the average conditions that were experienced in non-El Nino years, Gray said. “We foresee 2003 as being typical of hurricane seasons where the tropical-polar temperature gradient is weaker than average, vertical wind shear is reduced, and consequently hurricane activity is increased.”

Gray said there is a 70% chance that a hurricane will make landfall along the Gulf Coast this year, which is nine percentage points greater than average, and there is a 38% chance that an intense hurricane (category three-five) will make landfall along the Gulf Coast, which is eight percentage points greater than average.

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