Renowned hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray and his team ofsoothsayers at Colorado State University have scaled back theirforecast made in early June for the 2000 hurricane season, butstill expect it to be more active than average.

Seven, rather than eight, hurricanes are expected now, and onlythree — not four — of them are expected to be intense. In roundnumbers, the August forecast is for three named storms, twohurricanes, and one intense or major hurricane.

“Information obtained through July 2000 indicates that theAtlantic hurricane season in 2000 is likely to be less active thanthe four recent very busy years of 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999.However, total activity is expected to exceed the long term averageand is anticipated to be considerably more active than the mean forthe recent period of 1970 through 1994.

“We estimate that the 2000 season will have seven hurricanes(average is 5.7), 11 named storms (average is 9.3), 55 named stormdays (average is 47), 30 hurricane days (average is 24), threeintense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.2), six intensehurricane days (average is 4.7) and a Hurricane DestructionPotential (HDP) of 90 (average is 71). Collectively, net tropicalcyclone activity in year 2000 is expected to be about 130% of thelong-term average.

The early August forecast update is close to Gray’s Dec. 8, 1999and April 7 forecasts, but somewhat lower than his recent June 7update. “The forecast has been lowered slightly [because] June-Julyglobal circulation conditions have not progressed quite asfavorably for hurricane enhancement than as we anticipated in ourearly June forecast,” Gray said.

Rocco Canonica

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