Although the natural gas supply outlook has improved in recent weeks, analysts are steadfast in their convictions that higher prices are needed in the coming months to prevent a significant supply shortfall next winter.

A Goldman Sachs Commodities Research team, led by Samantha Dart, said this week it is maintaining a $3.25/MMBtu price forecast for this summer (April-October), above the current New York Mercantile Exchange forwards strip, which is averaging around $2.71.

Researchers also see “significant upside risk” to winter 2021-2022 prices if summer prices do not rally to Goldman’s forecast. If the move to $3.25 is delayed until 3Q2020, they said winter prices would need to rise to $3.10 to achieve comfortable storage inventories above 1,500 Bcf by the end of March...