Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub will average roughly $9/MMBtu during the fourth quarter before retreating to around $6 on average in 2023 amid rising domestic production, according to the latest projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Spot prices at the national benchmark averaged $8.80 in August, versus $7.28 in July, the agency said in the latest edition of its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, published Wednesday. 

In last month’s STEO, EIA modeled Henry Hub averages of $7.54 for the back half of 2022 and $5.10 for 2023.

The general downward pressure for natural gas prices heading into 2023 comes as EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to average 99.0 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter, up from 94.6 Bcf/d in 1Q2022. Output will then climb to 100.4...