March natural gas futures are expected to open 4 cents lower Friday morning at $5.36 as traders discount a government storage report expected to show an above-normal weather-driven storage pull. Overnight petroleum markets weakened.

Traders will get a first look at how recent wintry blasts have impacted stores of natural gas. For the week ended Feb. 6 the National Weather Service tallied 210 heating degree days (HDD) for the U.S. as a whole, up 11 HDD from normal with much of the increase along the eastern seaboard. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year 164 Bcf was withdrawn from storage and the five year average stands at 156 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 26 analysts for the week ended Feb.5 showed an expected draw of 180 Bcf, and industry consultant Bentek Energy is looking for a pull of 182 Bcf. Citi Futures anticipates that 165 Bcf was taken from storage. The report is scheduled to be released at 10:30 a.m. EST in Washington.

Traders see a higher withdrawal as necessary to spark any meaningful advance. “As far as today’s trade is concerned, the weekly EIA storage numbers could have some impact, especially if our expectation of a 193 Bcf draw or more is forthcoming,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates. If that doesn’t happen, he is looking for the market to limp to a weak close ahead of the holiday weekend. “We’re still viewing this market as one that can’t seem to gather much momentum in either direction. However, we will note the inability to advance this month off of an apparent bullish weather factor. This is sending off some negative vibes that could ultimately result in a test of the $5 support area,” he said in a morning note to clients.

Economy watchers were certainly not displeased with the 8:30 a.m. EST release of January retail sales figures by the Commerce Department. The economic barometer was expected to be 0.5% higher on a month-to-month basis, a healthy improvement over December’s minus 0.3% showing. The actual figure came in as expected at 0.5%. Both March Standard and Poor’s Stock Index Futures and March natural gas showed little change after the release of the data.

In overnight Globex trading March crude oil fell $1.12 to $74.16/bbl and March RBOB gasoline futures fell more than a penny and a half to $1.9185/gal.

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