Led by growth in the Haynesville Shale, natural gas production from seven key U.S. onshore regions is set to surge past the 96 Bcf/d mark in early 2023, according to the latest modeling from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Natural Gas Production

The agency’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday, models a combined 96.281 Bcf/d of natural gas production from seven Lower 48 drilling regions, a month/month increase of 535 MMcf/d. 

Carrying over from month-earlier projections, the Haynesville will lead natural gas production gains month/month, accounting for 152 MMcf/d of growth and raising its output to 16.409 Bcf/d, according to the latest DPR.

Alongside the Haynesville, the DPR also tracks production trends in the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shales.

Appalachia is set to contribute 113 MMcf/d of incremental natural gas production from December to January, with Permian gas output set to grow 119 MMcf/d over the same period. Sequential natural gas production gains are also expected from the Anadarko (24 MMcf/d), Bakken (33 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (69 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (25 MMcf/d) regions.

Oil production from the seven regions, meanwhile, will grow a combined 94,000 b/d from December to January to reach 9.319 million b/d, DPR projections show. 

Month/month oil production gains are expected from the Permian (37,000 b/d), Bakken (21,000 b/d), Niobrara (12,000 b/d), Anadarko (11,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (10,000 b/d) and Appalachia (3,000 b/d) regions, according to EIA.

The total number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells among the seven regions increased by 22 from October to November to 4,443, the latest DPR data show. The Niobrara added 31 DUC wells month/month to end with 474, while the Haynesville added 10 DUC wells to grow its backlog to 568, according to EIA’s tally.

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Meanwhile, the Permian (down eight), Anadarko (down three), Appalachia (down three), Eagle Ford (down three) and Bakken (down two) regions all drew down their respective DUC backlogs from October to November.

EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.