Natural gas production is set to rise more than 700 MMcf/d from April to May on the strength of output growth from the Haynesville Shale, and from the Appalachian and Permian basins, updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show.
Modeling trends from seven key U.S. onshore producing regions, EIA said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) Monday that it expects total natural gas output from these areas to climb 721 MMcf/d from April to May, reaching slightly under 91 Bcf/d.
Of the seven regions — the Anadarko, Appalachian and Permian basins, as well as the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara formations — only the Anadarko is expected to see natural gas output decrease from April to May. EIA said the Anadarko region is on pace for a 15 MMcf/d month/month decline.
Appalachia (up 197 MMcf/d), the Bakken (up 27 MMcf/d), the Eagle Ford (up 110 MMcf/d), the Haynesville (up 245 MMcf/d), the Niobrara (up 3 MMcf/d) and the Permian (up 154 MMcf/d) will all contribute output growth for the period, according to the DPR modeling.
Why Are There Natural Gas Supply Fears?
The latest domestic production forecasting comes as Nymex futures have soared to nearly $8/MMBtu, with analysts pointing to supply adequacy fears as a key catalyst driving prices higher. Only time will tell how much the pace of domestic output growth is able to quell market concerns over refilling storage and accommodating summer cooling demand.
Oil production from the seven regions, meanwhile, is set to increase by 132,000 b/d month/month to around 8.65 million b/d, EIA said. The Permian (up 82,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (up 26,000 b/d) and the Bakken (up 17,000 b/d) are set to contribute most of the oil productivity gains. More modest growth is expected from the Anadarko (up 3,000 b/d), Appalachia (up 3,000 b/d) and Niobrara (up 1,000 b/d) regions.
The total number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells across the seven regions fell 114 units to 4,273 between February and March, the most recent DPR data show. The Permian posted the largest drawdown for the period at 71, leaving its total DUC backlog at 1,309 as of March, according to EIA.
DUC totals also declined in the Anadarko (down 13), Appalachia (down 6), Bakken (down 11), Eagle Ford (down 11) and Niobrara (down 14) regions. The Haynesville, meanwhile, added 12 DUC wells to its backlog month/month, ending with 383 as of March, the EIA data show.
EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.
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