With Hurricane Ivan’s latest path putting it on an unobstructed collision course with the Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico, Producers have been put on high alert. Most Gulf producers have evacuated non-essential employees, while some companies have already shut in a portion of their production in the area.

Ivan, which has changed course more than a half dozen times over the past week and a half, now looks as if it will spare the west coast of Florida, instead choosing to wrap around Cuba through the Yucatan Channel and impact the eastern and central Gulf, without crossing any hurricane weakening land masses. As a result, the storm appears as if it will stay at or near its Category 5 classification, with maximum sustained winds remaining near the current 160 mph.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Hurricane Watches may be required for portions of the north central and northeastern Gulf coast later Monday night. The center added that a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward, including the Dry Tortugas. As of 5 p.m. (EDT), Ivan was 30 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, moving toward the north-northwest at near 9 mph.

Producers took note of the new path over the weekend and on Monday. The Interior Department’s Minerals Management Service (MMS) on Monday reported that 266.08 MMcf/d of natural gas and 99,529 barrels of oil per day had been shut in off the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, Southeast Louisiana and Texas. The shut-in figures were primarily based on the reports of 14 smaller producers. ChevronTexaco, Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP hadn’t yet reported any shut-in estimates to the agency, according to MMS spokeswoman Caryl Fagot.

The reporting companies included Unocal, El Paso, ENI Petroleum, Palace Operating Co., Marathon, Bois d’Arc Offshore Ltd., Comstock Offshore, Total, Anadarko, Taylor Energy, Arena Offshore, ConocoPhillips, Energy Partners and Murphy Exploration and Production USA, she said.

In a statement, Shell said it will complete evacuation of all personnel from its Eastern Gulf of Mexico operations (drilling and production) by the end of the day (750 people).

Shell production facilities in the affected area that were shut in include Mars, Ram Powell, Ursa, West Delta 143, Cognac and Main Pass 252. Shell operated total gross production for these facilities is approximately 272,000 b/d of oil and 880 MMcf/d. The company added that preparations are underway to evacuate additional personnel from Central Gulf of Mexico locations.

ChevronTexaco reported it had evacuated 670 essential and non-essential employees as of Monday from drilling rigs in the Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico, and planned to have all of its employees evacuated by noon Tuesday. The energy company also was in the process of shutting in some production Monday, said spokesman Matthew Carmichael, but he could not say how much had been shut in.

He noted that the Eastern and Central Gulf represented approximately 60-70% of ChevronTexaco’s total oil and natural gas production in the Gulf.

Houston-based ConocoPhillips on Monday evacuated non-essential personnel from three platforms off the coast of Louisiana, but production had not been affected, said a company spokesman. ConocoPhillips’s oil production in the Gulf was estimated at 20,000 barrels per day, and its natural gas production was pegged at 58 MMcf/d.

BP also began evacuations. “To ensure the safety of our offshore personnel, BP is evacuating approximately 1,900 of 2,300 offshore workers from facilities throughout the Gulf,” said BP spokeswoman Ayana McIntosh-Lee. “There has been no impact to production, and we will continue to operate remotely as long as possible.” She added that they will update their condition again around noon on Tuesday.

ExxonMobil’s Susan Reeves said that ExxonMobil has initiated a Phase 2 Hurricane Alert for its Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Mobile Bay operations, which means that the company will continue to monitor the storm, prepare structures for wind and rain, and evacuate approximately 110 non-essential personnel. “There is no impact to production operations at this time,” she said. Reeves added that 6,000 b/d of oil and 50 MMcf/d of natural gas were shut in as of Monday evening.

Kerr McGee expected to remove 100 employees and contractors from 17 operating facilities in the Gulf by the end of Monday, said a company spokesman. He estimated production to be shut in will be 18,000 barrels per day net of crude oil, and 145 MMcf/d net of natural gas .

“Ivan has changed paths so many times, it’s hard to speculate on what is going to happen,” Kerr-McGee’s John Christiansen said.

Newfield Exploration Co. announced it had shut-in approximately 75 MMcfe/d of net company-operated production, representing nearly 25% of Newfield’s current net offshore production, which is approximately 340 MMcfe/d. By the end of Monday, 53 non- essential personnel and 31 essential personnel are expected to have been evacuated. Drilling operations have been suspended on two operated jack-up rigs operating in the eastern Gulf. Newfield operates more than 160 platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and controls about 250 lease blocks.

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