Although global oil demand has come roaring back to about 89% of pre-coronavirus levels, it is expected to plateau around 92-95 million b/d, or 92-95% of pre-Covid levels through the first quarter of 2021, according to a new analysis by IHS Markit.

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“The meteoric rise of world oil demand from the lowest lows of the Covid crash is going to come up just short of a full comeback, at least for now,” said IHS Markit’s Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets. “For demand to fully return, travel – especially air travel and commuting to work – needs to get back to normal.

“And that won’t happen until there is containment of the virus and effective vaccines.”

World oil demand has swelled by 13 million b/d over the last four months since bottoming out in...