Gas wins big in the Energy Information Administration’s latestInternational Energy Outlook. The forecast calls for worldwide gasconsumption to increase 104% by 2020 from 1997 levels. Natural gasremains the fastest growing component of primary world energyconsumption.

Gas use is projected to reach a massive 167 Tcf. And its shareof total energy consumption increases from 22% in 1997 to 29% in2020. Moreover, gas accounts for the largest increment inelectricity generation (increasing by 33 quadrillion Btu or 41% ofthe total increment in energy used for electricity generation), theEIA projected.

In the industrialized world, gas consumption has the largestprojected increase among the major fuels, increasingly becoming thechoice for new power generation because of its environmental andeconomic advantages. Increments in gas use in the developingcountries are expected to supply both power generation and otheruses, such as town gas and fuel for industry. In China, forexample, gas use is projected to grow at a robust rate of 11.2% peryear over the forecast period.

Oil currently provides a larger share of world energyconsumption than any other energy source and is expected to remainin that position throughout the forecast period. Its share of totalenergy consumption declines slightly, however, from 39% in 1997 to38% in 2020, as countries in many parts of the world switch to gasand other fuels, particularly for electricity generation. World oilconsumption is projected to increase by 1.9% annually over the23-year projection period, from 73 million barrels per day in 1997to 113 million b/d in 2020.

Other projections (1997-2020) in the International EnergyOutlook 2000 include the following: overall energy consumption willjump 60% to 608 quadrillion Btus; net electricity consumption willrise 76% to 22 trillion kWh; and carbon emissions will grow 72%, or634 million metric tons.

Rocco Canonica

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